​39% concerned about security,
58% encourage presidential election first,
50% support the amendment of the Taef Accord and 85% want municipal elections

Over the past several months, Lebanon has been grappling with a plethora of political, social, economic and environmental crises that can be broken down as follows: 

• A presidential vacuum that has been ongoing since May 2014 and a consequence quasi-paralysis in the functioning of the government and Parliament;


• Several security events and bombings that have unfolded in a number of regions and the impasse that characterized the case of the kidnapped policemen and members of the Lebanese Army before the recent release of sixteen among them;


• A significant decline in economic activity reflected in the dismissal of several employees or the failure to disburse paychecks for months as well as the tireless demand to approve the salary scale.


• The accumulation of garbage in Beirut and Mount Lebanon since July 17, 2015 which is a very serious environment catastrophe.


• The ever-present crises of shortage of water and electricity and traffic.


• The failure to agree on a new parliamentary election law.


• The dissenting opinions on civil marriage and on the Lebanese woman’s right to grant the citizenship to their foreign husband and children.


• The ongoing division over the weapons of Hezbollah and the Party’s interference in the Syrian War.

On all these topics and more, Information International polled a representative sample of 1000 Lebanese selected by region and sect between November 17 and November 27, 2015 (see sample):
1- Major concern: security
Although the Lebanese feel unsettled by numerous crises, the major source of worry for the majority of respondents, that of  39%, remains the security situation. The economic conditions ranked as the second most worrying concern for 29% of the sample. 12% of respondents are worried about the mountains of garbage flooding the streets. The burden of Syrian refugees in Lebanon seems to have declined to only 10%, broadly in line with the need to fill the vacant presidential seat which was a source of concern for only 9% among respondents. Most striking is that only 2% found the dysfunction of government and the non-convening of any sessions since last September to be alarming (Graph 1). 

 
These positions differ depending on sects. For instance, while security worries rise to 75% among Alawites, followed by the Shia’a and the Greek Orthodox at 46% and 42% respectively, they decrease to 35% among the Maronite and 28% among the Druze (Table 1).
 

 

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2- Parliamentary election law: a majority voices support for Lebanon as a single electoral district and proportionality
While discussions flare up among political parties over the new formula for the parliamentary election law and while the parliamentary committee is pushing towards an electoral law upon which everybody would agree, the survey demonstrated that 57% of the respondents wish Lebanon to become a single electoral district with a proportional voting system, a percentage that went up from 47% in a survey conducted on a sample of 500 people in February 2013.

The percentages of those supporting other options were remarkably low and broke down as follows:

• Adopting the six Mohafazas as electoral districts according to proportionality: 14%


• The 1960s electoral law (adopting the Qada’a as electoral district according to plurality): 13%


• Single-member districts: 9%


• The draft law laid forth by the national committee headed by the former minister Fouad Boutros which stipulates merging between plurality and proportionality: 6% (Graph 2)

 

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• Other proposals - such as the Orthodox proposal (Lebanon as a single district where proportionality is used and voters can only vote for candidates of their own sects) or the government’s proposal presented when Marwan Charbel was an Interior Minister, which suggested dividing Lebanon into fifteen electoral districts and adopting proportionality- were greeted with little if any approval.


• Clear discrepancies marked the respondents’ positions towards the suggested electoral formulas across sects as illustrated in Table 2.

The option of turning Lebanon into a single electoral district according to a proportionality-based voting system was most appealing for Shia’a and Alawite respondents at 71% and 75% respectively. This percentage dropped to 56% among Maronite and Druze circles and reached its lowest at 40% among the Sunni.

 

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In 2013, the position on the electoral law varied by sect as follows:

 

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3- Presidential election comes first
Opinions were divided over whether the presidential or the parliamentary elections should be held first. 58% of the surveyed sample viewed that the presidential election should be held immediately or as soon as possible and that the current Parliament which has extended its own term until 2017 should convene to elect a President. Conversely, 39% called first for the approval of an electoral law based on which parliamentary elections can be held and the new legislature would then elect a President. 3% of the people polled were not sure which should go first (Graph 3). 

In a previous poll conducted between August 17 and August 30, the people who were against holding the parliamentary elections ahead of presidential ones accounted for half of the sample while 42% supported this option and 8% voiced uncertainty on the matter. 

 

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The percentage of those opting for presidential elections reached its highest among Alawite respondents at 75%. 68% also supported this option among the Druze, 64% among the Shia’a and 62 %  among the Greek Orthodox. The support decreases slightly to 57% and 56% among Sunni and Maronite respondents as illustrated in Table 4. 

 

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4- Attitude towards the Taef Accord: A majority encourages amendment
Amidst all the political crises that Lebanon has navigated since the approval of the Taef Accord in 1989, there were political voices demanding either the amendment of the Accord or its fullest implementation. Controversy over the Taef Accord is unlikely to subside in future years or even decades. The current opinion poll revealed that a majority of roughly half of the respondents endorsed the amendment of the Taef Accord. Objections were voiced by 27% of the respondents and 14% noted that they supported the amendment but not at the current stage. 9% responded with “I don’t know” (Graph 4).
 

 

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Most noteworthy is that the positions of the Lebanese in this regard were quasi-accordant and no particular sect seemed to be clinging staunchly to the Taef agreement. Nevertheless the percentage of support for amendment was slightly higher within the Christian and Shia’a communities than with the Sunni. Those who encouraged the modification of the Taef Accord, whether immediately or later, accounted for 67% of the Maronite respondents, 70% of the Orthodox, 66% of the Shia’a and 77% of the Druze. Among the Sunni, 53% were for the amendment (Table 5).

 

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5- Parliament dialogue: A waste of time 
Speaker Nabih Berri invited in last September major political forces to convene a national dialogue table in Parliament to discuss a specific agenda. Several dialogues sessions were held so far none of which reached tangible results. On their perceptions towards the national dialogue unfolding in Parliament, 54% described the dialogue as a waste of time; 30% of respondents voiced their support for it while 13% voiced their objection. 3% responded with “I don’t know”.

6- Parliament’s activity amidst presidential vacuum: divided opinions
Political and parliamentary opinion was divided over Parliament’s activity amidst the presidential vacuum fluctuating between three major positions:

• Parliament’s activity should be halted entirely and Parliament should first and foremost elect a President of the Republic.


• Parliament should carry on its usual activity as far as committee and legislative sessions are concerned.


• Parliament should convene and approve necessary laws in order to run the business of the state under the ‘legislation of necessity’ maxim.

The results were close for the first two options with 40% voting for the first and 38% for the second. 22% of the respondents settled for the third option (Graph 5).

 

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7- Municipal and ikhtiyariah councils 
The term of the Municipal and ikhtiyariah councils expire in May 2016. As the date approaches, there does not seem to be any signs signaling potential elections and all talks suggesting that it is still too early to talk about it are suspected to be promoting the possibility of extension of mandate. However, this possibility is greeted with enormous popular opposition reaching as high as 85%. Only 5% of respondents did not mind extending the term of Municipal and ikhtiyariah councils while 10% said the matter did not concern them. Most striking was the considerable increase in the levels of objection to the extension of municipal terms which even surpassed the objection to the extension of Parliament’s mandate which stood at 71% as reported by a previous opinion poll conducted by Information International.

8- Civil movement: A supportive majority
Over the past few months, Lebanon was a platform for several popular movements that took to the streets in protest of the status quo, particularly the garbage crisis. These protests were dubbed the “civil movement”. Despite the  recent decline in the fervor of the civil movement and its failure to rally more than tens of thousands of supporters, a majority of 71% of respondents assured that they supported this movement. 21% were against it and 8% were indecisive answering “I don’t know” (Graph 6).

 

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9- Position on Hezbollah’s weapons: 25% for the everlasting retention of weapons and 33% support the weapons for the time being.
Hezbollah’s military arsenal has turned into a subject of discord among the Lebanese shortly after the withdrawal of Israel from South Lebanon in May 2000. The controversy over the arms intensified in 2005 as well as after the conflict of May 2008 and most particularly following the events in Syria. When asked on their attitude towards Hezbollah’s weapons, about a quarter of respondents, 25%, reported full support for the permanency of weapons irrespective of the circumstances; 33% said Hezbollah should keep its weapons until the realization of certain conditions, 17% believed the weapons should be kept until the liberation of the Shebaa Farms and the Kfarshouba Hills and 16% until a comprehensive compromise is reached for the region. While 23% said the disarmament of Hezbollah can only be done after reaching understanding with the party, 6% called for the immediate withdrawal of the weapons by force and 13% said they were not concerned (Graph 7). 

 

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Attitudes towards Hezbollah’s weapons vary drastically depending on the sectarian affiliation of respondents. 56% of the Shia’a respondents supported the unconditional retention of weapons, a percentage that fell to 7% among the Sunni, 14% among the Druze, 12% among the Maronite and 20% among the Greek Orthodox. Support for the permanency of arms rises once again to 43% among Catholic respondents. 

It is noteworthy that most sectarian communities refuse the disarmament of Hezbollah by force and there is a general inclination to negotiate the withdrawal of arms in agreement with the party. This inclination reaches 36% among the Sunni, 30% among the Maronite and 25% among the Druze as illustrated in Table 6.

 

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10- 47% support Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria
A majority of 47% of respondents voiced support for Hezbollah’s engagement in the Syria War. 32% opposed the party’s meddling in the Syrian conflict and 21% answered “I don’t know”. The levels of support and opposition seem to be closely divided among respondents with a slight advantage for supporters (Graph 8.) 

In a previous poll conducted by Information International between November 29 and December 2, 2013 (two years ago), the results as to Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria broke down as follows:

• 37%: No answer


• 33%: Against Hezbollah’s interference in Syria


• 30%: For Hezbollah’s interference in Syria

A comparison of the current and past trends reveals a clear shift in attitude towards the party’s presence in Syria over the past two years. While the level of opposition has remained fairly unchanged (33% against 32%), around half of those who were on the fence have turned into supporters of the party’s involvement in Syria. The other half maintained their previous position.

 

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The stances on the party’s involvement in the Syrian War varied depending on the sect. Advocates of Hezbollah’s involvement accounted for 81% of Shia’a respondents and 63% of the Greek Catholic. This percentage decreased to 41% among the Maronite and further to 14% among the Sunni where a majority of 66% denounced the deployment of Hezbollah in Syria as illustrated in Table 7. The 2013 attitudes towards this file are recollected in Table 8. 

On a relevant note, 51% of respondents reported that Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria was to the advantage of Lebanon as it protected it from the infiltration of terrorists and extremists. However, 30% viewed that Hezbollah’s interference led to explosions and security tensions and benefited Iran and the Syrian regime far more than Lebanon. A considerable percentage, that of 19%, said they were not concerned. 

The overall results lead us to the conclusion that attitudes towards Hezbollah are divided quasi-equally between supporters and rivals.

 

 

 

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11- Government activity: Decisions by majority vote
The Lebanese government’s activity was halted last September following disputes over a number of topics foremost of which were the security appointments, the mechanism it will use to govern its decisions amidst presidential vacuum and its exercise of the president’s prerogatives.
Attitudes were closely divided into two major opinions: 

• 38% viewed that decisions should be made in the government by a majority vote in all the matters put on the table


• 35% believed that decisions should be made unanimously in all the matters put on the table

16% reported that unanimity is necessary as far as key issues are concerned and 5% said majority vote should only cover ordinary items. 6% branded themselves as “not concerned” (Graph 9).

 

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No major variance in opinion was observed across the sects of respondents as illustrated in Table 9. 

 

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12- Presidential election: 66% for a president elected directly by the people
Article 49 of the Lebanese Constitution stipulates that “The President of the Republic shall be elected by secret ballot and by a two-third majority of the Chamber of Deputies.”

However, a majority of 66% of respondents applauded the amendment of this article so that the President of the Republic can be elected directly by the people. 21% challenged the amendment and 13% voiced no opinion (Graph 10.)

It is noteworthy that support for a direct election of the president was slightly higher in 2014 when the proposition was approved by a vast majority of 74% while 20% maintained support for the electoral mechanism in force and 5% viewed that the president should be elected over two rounds. Only 1% of the sample refrained from answering at that time.

 

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13- 85% support lowering voting age to 18
Article 21 of the Lebanese Constitution set the legal voting age in Lebanon at 21. However, an overwhelming majority of 85% supported a constitutional amendment that lowers the voting age to 18. Only 14% refused to revise the current voting age and 2% were not sure. 

14- Between civil and religious marriages: 47% for the freedom of choice
Civil marriage in Lebanon remains a subject of controversy that flares up occasionally and dies out without reaching any satisfactory solutions. Three major attitudes were reported towards civil marriage according to the survey:

• A majority of 47% of respondents hold that the Lebanese should have the freedom to choose between civil marriage and the religious marriage currently in force.


• A high percentage of 42% want the current religious marriage to remain the norm in the Muslim and Christian courts.


• 4% wish to see civil marriage come into force in Lebanon and 7% said they were not concerned. (Graph 11.).

 

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Evidently, the perceptions on civil and religious marriages are often propelled by sectarian and religious considerations. The levels of rejection of civil marriage are the highest within Muslim sects and stand at 72% among the Sunni, 46% among the Druze and 45% among the Shia’a. The percentage plummets to 25% among the Greek Orthodox, 21% among the Maronite and 12% among the Greek Catholics as illustrated in Table 10.

 

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In a survey conducted earlier in May 2014, the proponents of optional civil marriage accounted for 41% of respondents while opponents constituted 54.6%.   The remaining respondents reported uncertainty on the subject. Positions by sect broke down as illustrated in the table below:

 

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15- 79% support the nationality recovery law
In its session of November 2015, Lebanese Parliament approved the nationality recovery law whereby the descendants of Lebanese origins may recover their Lebanese citizenship under certain conditions and obligations. Although this was widely deemed a Christian triumph to the detriment of Muslims, the Lebanese public opinion was not starkly divided over this law even if the support within Christian circles was slightly higher than Muslims’. In fact, an overwhelming majority of 79% of respondents supported this law while the degree of opposition was limited to 21% (Graph 12).

 

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16- 65% support the transfer of nationality from Lebanese women to foreign-born husbands
In parallel with the nationality recovery law, the law granting the Lebanese woman the right to transfer her nationality to her foreign-born husband and her future kids is also under discussion. While the former has seen the light, it is unlikely that the latter would because there are several sectarian obstacles hindering its approval especially that the law is feared to realize a surplus in the number of Muslims. This draft law was supported by 65% of respondents and opposed by 35%. 

The opinion on this draft law varied largely by sect as clearly illustrated in Table 12 with supporters accounting for roughly 82% among the Sunni, 50% among the Maronite and 59% among the Shia’a.

 

 

17- Garbage crisis: 66% hold the government accountable
Since the closure of the Naameh landfill on July 17, 2015, residents of Beirut and Mount Lebanon have been grappling with a dreadful garbage crisis aggravated by the failure to find a new landfill or to come up with alternative solutions. While a majority of 66% of respondents held the entire government accountable for this crisis, 12% thrust the responsibility on the Environment Minister Mohammad El-Mashnouq. 7% held Sukleen responsible for the crisis. The remaining 15% of the sample blamed it on different parties including those rejecting the landfills (5%) or the municipalities (3%) (Graph 13.)

 

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As the solutions laid forth failed against the rejection of residents to host landfills in their towns, 70% of respondents believed the government should resort to dialogue and negotiations with the protesters while 25% argued that the government should be sterner and should not bend to the residents’ will. 5% said they were not concerned (Graph 14.)

 

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18- The salary scale: 72% for its approval
72% of the respondents converge on their opinions regarding the approval of the salary scale while 16% challenge its approval. 13% voiced no opinion (Graph 15.)

Compared to the findings of a previous survey conducted between August 17 and 31 in 2014, attitudes towards the salary scale seem to have somewhat changed. While the level of support stood at 61% in 2014, it has grown by 11% over the course of a year and a half and there now seems to be increased awareness as to the importance of the salary scale in facing the ever-growing cost of living. While the level of objection plummeted from 34% to 16%, it is worth mentioning that not all objectors converted into supporters; rather, a good few have grown uncertain and the level of indecisiveness increased from 5% to 13%.

 

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19- Living and economic conditions have declined for 64% of respondents
As time goes by, the economic and living situation in Lebanon will deteriorate for reasons that are off our subject for now. A majority of 64% of respondents reported deterioration in their living and economic conditions compared to last year with 36% saying their situation has gone worse and 28% saying it has become substantially worse. 30% said their situation was stable and did not change much from last year and 6% reported better economic and living conditions (Graph 15).

 

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20- 34% consider emigration 
Emigration has been a consistent feature of the Lebanese over the decades. The pace of emigration reached a high during the Lebanese Civil War and seems to have emerged again in recent years as an option to escape the security and economic pressures. 

34% of respondents expressed their desire to leave Lebanon and live overseas and 66% ruled out this possibility. Most alarming is that these percentages cover the residing Lebanese only, so if the wish of those aspiring to emigrate ever materializes and if we were to add them to the Lebanese who had already fled and settled abroad, the percentage of emigrants would account for almost half the Lebanese population.

It is to be noted that the segments wishing to emigrate are higher within the Muslim communities than the Christian ones as illustrated in Table 13. This could be attributed that the fact that emigration rates were far higher among Christians in the past. 

66% of the respondents aspiring to emigrate have taken tangible steps towards this goal. 32% are awaiting invitations from relatives or friends living abroad; 17% have applied for passports and 17% are processing their visas.
 

 

 

Sample
The opinion poll was conducted between 20 and 27 November, 2015 and covered a representational sample of 1000 Lebanese respondents distributed over all regions, sects, age groups, gender and social and educational levels.
 

 

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