Information International’s Opinion Poll : the Lebanese on their opinions on current issues
Who would you nominate as President of the Republic?
On their preferential candidate for the presidency of the republic, a majority of respondents, 21%, named MP Suleiman Frangieh as their favorite nominee. MP Michel Aoun ranked second at 17% and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea third at 9%. Interestingly, 12% of the sample named ‘no one’ and 6% had no opinion or were undecided on the issue, answering ‘I don’t know’. The remaining percentage of the sample, 35%, voted for different candidates, each of whom gained less than 9%.
By sect, General Michel Aoun was the preferential candidate of Maronite respondents (23%). He also ranked first among the Greek Orthodox, the Greek Catholic and the Armenian communities. Conversely, 43% of Shia’a respondents identified Suleiman Frangieh as their favorite presidential candidate. Table 1 illustrates the preferential candidate for presidency by sect.
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What is the best electoral method to elect a President of the Republic?
It is common knowledge that the President of the Lebanese Republic is elected by Parliament. However, every now and then, occasional calls arise demanding that the Head of State be elected directly by the people. Apparently, this proposition is widely accepted by the Lebanese as it was greeted with the approval of a vast majority of respondents, 74%.
20% emphasized their support of the current electoral mechanism while a minority of 5% viewed that the president should be elected in two rounds: the Christians would elect two candidates in the first round, and the Lebanese would opt for one of them in the second. 1% of respondents did not answer.
By sect, the percentage of support of direct election by the people seems high among Muslim respondents, standing at 85% among the Shia’a, 84% among the Druze and 77% among the Sunni. This option is supported to a lesser degree by the Christians but remains high, reaching 68% among Greek Orthodox respondents, 62% among the Maronites and 52% among the Greek Catholics.
Which one should be held first, presidential or parliamentary elections?
The presidential seat has been vacant since the expiry of President Michel Suleiman’s term of office on May 25, 2014. Subsequently, presidential elections should be held as soon as possible in order to fill the ensuing vacuum. In the same vein, the legislature’s extended term of office is expected to end on November 20 this year, which means that parliamentary elections must be conducted in the period between September 20 and November 20. Half of the sampled population objected to holding parliamentary elections before presidential ones; 42% supported the option and 8% had no opinion on the matter.
Paradoxically, a vast majority of 81% opposes the extension of the legislature’s term against 14% who do not. 5% advocate a short extension of no more than a year.
Premiership
Should there be an alteration in the government in the future, the preference of 28% of respondents fell on Saad Hariri to assume premiership. Second on their list of favorite premiership candidates was Tamam Salam at 11%, who is followed by Najib Mikati at 5%.
21% of respondents named no one; 8% selected the ‘I don’t now’ option and the remaining 27% named miscellaneous figures, each gaining less than 5% of the vote.
By sect, Saad Hariri ranked first among Sunni respondents at 33%. He was also preferred by 32% of the Maronite, 31% of the Greek Orthodox, 31% of the Catholics, 30% of the Druze but only 19% of the Shia’a, as illustrated in Table 2 below.
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Those who nominated Saad Hariri had different standpoints regarding presidential candidates. Of those, 19% selected Samir Geagea, 15% Michel Aoun and 14% Suleiman Frangieh. General Jean Qahwaji and former Minister Ziad Baroud obtained 10% each.
Performance of Ministers
Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil: 57% of respondents backed the refusal of Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil to approve spending of any kind, including the reimbursement of public servants’ salaries, without a legal cover. 18% held a different opinion and 17% supported him but viewed that the salaries should be an exception. The remaining 8% gave ‘I don’t know’ as an answer.
Minister of Public Health Wael Abou Faour: Slightly over half of the respondents (52%) showed optimism over the success of Abou Faour’s plan to reduce the prices of medications and closely monitor the bills of private hospitals. 36% held contrasting opinions and 11% voiced no opinion on the issue (“I don’t know”).
Minister of the Interior and Municipalities Nouhad Mashnouq: While 50% of respondents warranted the success of Nouhad Mashnouq in maintaining order and security, 41% begged to differ and 9% answered ‘ I don’t know’. Generally speaking, a majority of 65% described his performance as ‘very good’, 25% as ‘bad’ and 6% viewed his performance as ‘excellent.’ 4% answered ‘I don’t know’.
Minister of Telecommunications Boutros Harb: A vast majority of 73% answered that Boutros Harb has succeeded in reducing the cost of phone calls against 24% who disagreed and 3% who answered ‘ I don’t know’. Conversely, 66% stated that the minister had failed to improve the quality of phone calls, while 34% voiced the opposite.
Most serious threat to security and stability
Just under half of the respondents (40%) branded the extremist Islamist groups as the biggest threat to Lebanon’s security and stability. Israel ranked second according to 28% of the people polled; Hezbollah constituted a threat to 6% of the sample and Iran, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Syria each obtained an equal percentage of 5%.
By sect, a vast majority of the Shia’a respondents (61%) identified extremist Islamist groups as the most threatening source for instability. This percentage dropped down to 26% among Sunni respondents of which 13% believe that Hezbollah poses an appalling threat. Table 3 illustrates the most serious threat to security and stability by sect.
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Position on Hezbollah’s intervention in Syria
The Lebanese are divided almost equally on Hezbollah’s intervention in Syria. While 46% of the sample supported Hezbollah’s action, another 43% opposed it and 11% did not answer. The Shia’a respondents stand at the forefront of supporters at 83%; Christians have dissenting positions on the matter while the Sunni and Druze communities challenge the intervention at 70% and 59% respectively as illustrated in Table 4.
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Upon comparison of these findings with those of the poll conducted earlier in December 2013 when 30% advocated the intervention, 33% challenged it and 37% were indecisive, it seems evident that there has been a clear shift in attitudes. The level of uncertainty declined from 37% to 11% among indecisive respondents who, for the most part, joined the ranks of supporters.
Visit of Patriarch Mar Bechara Boutros al-Rai to Jerusalem
Maronite Patriarch Mar Bechara Boutros al-Rai paid a visit to occupied Jerusalem in May 2013, sparking contrasting opinions among the Lebanese who were divided among supporters and criticizers. A majority of 63% were supportive of the visit while 25% greeted it with opposition. 12% of respondents did not have definite positions on the subject. By sect, the level of support rises to more than 80% among the Maronite, Greek Orthodox, Greek Catholic, Armenian and Druze respondents but drops to 50% among Sunni and further to 32% among Shia’a.
Position on the Lebanese in Israel
When Israel pulled out of South Lebanon in May 2000, a number of Lebanese nationals who had collaborated with the Israelis during the occupation withdrew together with them. This dossier is still a subject of seasonal sectarian and political polarizations. 55% of respondents reported a centrist position, espousing the return of the innocent among those nationals and the trial of those suspected of collaboration with Israel. 27% of the sample branded them as Israeli agents and disapproved of their return to Lebanon contrary to the 18% who demanded their return without any trial.
Peace between Lebanon and Israel
A vast majority of respondents, 73%, opposed a peace agreement with Israel; 21% supported it and 6% took no position on the matter. By sect, the majority of Shia’a (94%), Druze (82%) and Sunni (72%) stood against this option. Although to a lesser degree, the opposition of Christian sects to this proposition was also high: 60% among the Greek Orthodox, 58% among Maronites and 50% among Greek Catholics. This implies quasi-unanimity refusing any peace with Israel at the national level.
Position on salary scale
Increasing the salaries of public servants has been the central focus of the economic and political concerns of the majority of Lebanese in the past three years, due to the major impact these increases have on people’s well-being. Until now, the salary scale has not seen the light despite the major support it has gathered. According to the survey, 61% of respondents backed the approval of the salary scale, 43% of which proposing its approval as it currently stands and 18% after reducing its cost. Opposing respondents accounted for 34% of the sample and 5% had no opinion on the issue.
Water crisis
In addition to the numerous concerns that the Lebanese have, from politics to electricity to deplorable economic and living conditions, a new worry is now looming in the horizon. Resting assured that Lebanon has major sources of water and is even capable of exporting water; nobody foresaw a water crisis in the country. Yet, the decline in the rates of rainfall has resulted in steep water shortages and there are now discussions on the options for importing water. 71% of respondents reported that they suffer from a water problem against 29% who were not affected.
The majority of the affected respondents, 79%, address the problem by buying tanker water, 15% by drilling artesian wells and 5% by building tanks or digging wells to retain rainfall.
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