In its issues No 47, 48 and 49, Ii Monthly published three parts of Mr. Adra’s paper on the “Lebanese Syndrome”, with Devices and Arrangements being the third part.  In this issue, Ii Monthly publishes “Consequences”

Part 4/6

17 years from the Taef Accord, during which Lebanon witnessed the accession of two presidents, six Prime Ministers, and 12 governments that included 234 ministers,  the system has been maintained but at a very high cost.

The Vicious Cycle of Violence

Since its independence, Lebanon has been struggling in a vicious cycle of violence as demonstrated below in figure No.1.

Lebanon has been weighed down with the heavy toll of this cycle. The cost of the civil war (1975-1990) for example read as follows:

-           An estimated 170-200,000 dead

-           An estimated 300,000 wounded, of which 50,000 were partially disabled and 12,000 completely disabled

-           Tens of thousands of people estimated missing

-           More than 1 million people displaced, half of which remained displaced until 1995

-           Massive emigration, estimated to exceed half a million

-           Collapse of the value of the Lebanese Pound, with the exchange rate reaching LBP 3,000 to the dollar in 1992

-           An inflation rate of 65%

-           Damage to property estimated at over 30 billion dollars: over 10,000 houses completely destroyed; 30,000 houses partially destroyed; 100,000 houses damaged; 13,400 offices and shops destroyed

-           An estimated number of 40,000 cars burned and damaged, and another 70,000 partially damaged

-           A drop in forestation from 11% to 6%

-          Transgressions on public property, including marine property, causing several billions of dollars in losses

Emigration and Brain Drain

Emigration has been one of the characteristics of modern Lebanon. There is a lack of official statistics indicating the exact number of Lebanese emigrants. Existing studies such as that of Dr. Riad Tabbarah estimated the number of emigrants to amount to 100,000 per year in the past few years, while a study performed by Dr. Anis Abi Farah estimated this number to amount to 2,325,131 between the years 1990-2000. However, a study conducted by Information International estimated the number of emigrants between the year 1991 and 2001 to be 200,000 persons. Moreover, the Study revealed that 82.6% of the emigrants are between 20-44 years of age, more than half of which are college graduates. One of the consequences of the high youth emigration level is that Lebanon is becoming an aging society⁽¹⁾ with less productivity.

Financial Cost

Total public governmental expenditures amounted to 77,42 billion dollars between the years 1992-2004, of which the public debt service represents (35%), followed by salaries and compensations (23%), and operating expenses (16%). Graph No.1 shows the allocation of expenditures between the years 1992-2004. The total public debt amounted to 54,122 billion Lebanese pounds*, in addition to the grants and loans that the government has received amounting to 6,300 million dollars, and the government accumulating liabilities both public and private of 4,659 billion Lebanese pounds. Thus the total public debt amounted to 68,231 billion Lebanese pounds, constituting 241% of the national GDP, with the interest paid representing almost 80% or 28,180 million dollars⁽²⁾.

In the next issue part 5: Examples on Corruption

Jawad Adra